Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

NATO allies will meet in Vilnius, Lithuania, from July 11-12 for discussions set to focus on ongoing Russian hostilities in Ukraine and Sweden’s bid to enter the coalition.

Turkey, which provides NATO’s second-largest military force, has opposed the accession, repeatedly citing security concerns over Stockholm’s support of Kurdish groups that Ankara designates as terrorist.

It remains unclear if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration will continue its objections.

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Russia suffered an average 400 casualties per day for 17 months and is “almost certainly struggling with a crisis of combat medical provision,” Britain’s Defense Ministry said on Monday in its latest intelligence update.

“It is likely that up to 50 per cent of Russian combat fatalities could have been prevented with proper first aid,” the ministry said. “Very slow casualty evacuation, combined with the inappropriate use of the crude in-service Russian combat tourniquet, is reportedly a leading cause of preventable fatalities and amputations.”

The ministry estimates that Russian civilian medical services have likely been affected, with many dedicated military hospitals slated to attend officer casualties.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Over the weekend, Ukraine marked 500 days of battle since Russia’s devastating full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presidential office commemorated the occasion with the release of a video shot at Snake Island on the Black Sea — a minor outpost that entered the war’s turbulent history as a sign of defiance against the Kremlin, when it refused to surrender to Russian forces at the start of the invasion.

Snake Island was captured by Moscow’s troops shortly after, then reclaimed by Ukraine in June last year.

“Although this is a small piece of land in the middle of our Black Sea, it is a great proof that Ukraine will regain every bit of its territory,” Zelenskyy said, remembering the sacrifice of fallen Ukrainian forces.

“I want to thank – from here, from this place of victory – each of our soldiers for these 500 days.”

— Ruxandra Iordache

U.S. President Joe Biden arrived in London on Sunday and is set to meet British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Discussions on the Ukrainian counteroffensive are expected.

The visit is Biden’s fifth with Sunak in as many months and “will be an opportunity for them to compare notes on both of our support for Ukraine and their ongoing efforts on the battlefield,” Amanda Sloat, senior director for the National Security Council, said on Friday.

The meeting comes within days of a controversial U.S. decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine — a type of deadly weaponry that is banned under the Convention on Cluster Munitions, to which the U.K. is a signatory.

Biden will attend the NATO summit in Vilnius after his London stop.

— Ruxandra Iordache

CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick reports from Vilnius, Lithuania, where the Ukraine war and Sweden’s accession will be key topics at a NATO summit that starts Tuesday.

Discussions will reportedly touch on whether Ukraine could adopt a security assistance model based on the United States’ relationship with Israel.

Ukrainian forces made a “definite advance” in the southern flank of the long embattled and strategic eastern city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on Sunday on Telegram, according to a Google translation.

She added that Russian troops locally were “on the defensive,” with no changes in position noted in the north of the city.

“Bakhmut direction. We are making progress, the Defense Forces continue to advance, and the enemy is trapped in places,” Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who commands Ukraine’s ground forces, said on Sunday on Telegram, according to Google-translated comments.

Ukraine’s military was engaging in a “fierce battle” in the areas of Melitopol and Berdyansk, both in the Zaporizhzhia region in the southeast of Ukraine, Maliar said.

Russian paramilitary group Wagner claimed control of Bakhmut at the end of May.

CNBC could not independently verify the situation on the ground.

— Ruxandra Iordache

The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said that the majority of deaths and injuries in Ukraine were caused by explosive weapons with wide impact areas.

The OHCHR said that an estimated 7,653 people have died due to explosive weapons and another 15,131 have been injured.

About 300 people have died due to mines and other explosive remnants from the war and about 600 have been injured from this type of weapon.

Since the start of the war, the U.N. agency estimates that more than 9,000 civilians have died and nearly 16,000 have been injured.

— Amanda Macias

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Friday said that there remain “gaps” to bridge before Turkey will agree to grant Sweden accession to the military alliance, according to Reuters.

Speaking at a press conference, Stoltenberg — whose term was extended by a further year earlier this week — said he would meet with leaders of the two countries on Monday, ahead of a planned NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, next week.

— Karen Gilchrist