South Korea’s gross domestic product grows 0.9% in second quarter
South Korea’s gross domestic product grew 0.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, according to advance estimates.
This was unchanged from the 0.9% seen in the first quarter, and beat the 0.8% estimate by economists polled by Reuters.
On a quarter to quarter basis, South Korea’s GDP grew 0.6%, the largest quarterly growth seen since the second quarter of 2022.
— Lim Hui Jie
CNBC Pro: Stocks, bonds, commodities or cash? Citi and others reveal how to allocate right now
As the S&P 500‘s year-to-date rally nears 20%, some investors have questioned whether stocks could be nearing a tipping point.
Other potential risks on the horizon include the yield curve inversion — believed by many to be a signal of recession — this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, and inflation numbers due next month.
So how should investors allocate their portfolios in this environment? Here’s what Citi, TS Lombard and the Wells Fargo Investment Institute advise.
— Weizhen Tan
CNBC Pro: Here are the only 4 global stocks to raised dividends by more than 10% for the past 15 years
Dividend growth is often a key factor for investors seeking stable returns, and four global companies are notable for their consistent — and significant — payout increases.
One of the stocks, a multinational food and beverage company, has consistently raised dividends by more than 10% since 1993. Another has seen its share price rise by more than 4,000% in price returns, in addition to its consistent dividend payments.
— Ganesh Rao
‘Good value, low risk, high quality’: BofA names top European stocks to beat a recession
Bank of America has named multiple European “top stocks” it says are of “good value, low risk” and “high quality.”
All of them turned up on “recession screens” for July, in a market BofA described as a being in a recession style cycle. A style cycle refers to the relationship between economic cycles and investment styles, the bank said in a research note dated July 19.
— Lucy Handley
Fed reportedly not convinced that inflation has cooled enough
Federal Reserve officials are likely going to need more evidence before declaring victory on inflation, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Citing economists and Fed officials, the Journal noted that the decline in the inflation rate could be temporary, mirroring concerns policymakers had when inflation was rising and also appeared to be temporary.
The uncertainty about inflation has spread to the White House, where one of its top economists, Jared Bernstein, told CNBC last week that, “Our work is not done.”
Underscoring its commitment to bringing inflation down further, the Fed is expected to enact another quarter-point rate hike this week. Investors will be listening carefully to Chairman Jerome Powell for more clues as to where policy is heading.
Crude oil and gasoline jump to 3-month highs
West Texas Intermediate oil may close above its 200-day moving average ($77.14) Monday for the first time since last August. Already, the September contract reached $77.85 a barrel Monday, the highest since April 26.
September Brent contracts, the global oil benchmark, hit $81.84 early Monday, the highest since April 25.
August RBOB gasoline contracts (the RBOB stands for Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending), which is the U.S. standard, climbed to $2.8403 a gallon Monday, the highest since April 14.
Meanwhile, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is up 0.8% early Monday, adding to the 4% rally over the prior five trading days, led by Valero Energy, Devon Energy and Phillips 66 (PSX) all of which have risen almost 7% or more over the past week.
“Oil looks ready to breakout — WTI is pushing through the 200 day this morning (unfazed by the weak Europe data), and gasoline futures are quietly up some +25% since May,” the Strategas technical and macro research team wrote Monday.
— Scott Schnipper, Gina Francolla
Manufacturing improves, services pull back in July, PMI readings show
Manufacturing activity picked up in July but remained in contraction, according to an S&P Global Flash PMI reading released Monday.
The purchase managers index for manufacturing registered a reading of 49, representing the percentage of businesses reporting expansion. That was better than the 46.3 in June but still below the 50 level that is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Conversely, the services PMI was at 52.4, which is expansionary but was less than the 54.4 June reading and the lowest level in five months.
Second-quarter earnings scorecard
One of the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week with 30% of the S&P 500 reporting results. This includes earnings from technology giants including Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Alphabet.
So far this season, 18% of companies in the broad-based index have reported results, with 60% topping sales expectations, according to FactSet. About 76% of companies have topped earnings per share expectations.
Across the board, analysts are bracing for a more than 9% decline in year-over-year earnings based on the blended growth rate.
— Samantha Subin